Who'da thought we'd be talking about the fact that the dollar is down against the euro--when "down" means $1.435? I check the exchange rate on MSN - EURO periodically,and have been gratified that a bit of sanity, perhaps, is creeping back into the system? I know we have experts on this board who know more than I. Where do you think this is going, short term, any way?
The last discussion like this was closed down by the mods for not being travel-related enough. The message when the thread was closed, implied that discussions like this were more appropiate on other forums on the web like Financial ones.
Posts: 3743 | Location: St Paul, MN | Registered: 10 February 2006
Originally posted by dragonpat: The last discussion like this was closed down by the mods for not being travel-related enough. The message when the thread was closed, implied that discussions like this were more appropiate on other forums on the web like Financial ones.
I could keep going but there's been plenty of discussion on this one. Most not closed as long as they relate to travel. You'll probably notice too many of the same or similar replies from the same people in each thread.
So... I suspect the Euro/Dollar topic will be reappearing periodically over time. What's the suggestion from the powers that be regarding the best approach when someone wants to raise some fresh aspect of this the issue? Take an old thread and resurrect it, or start a fresh one?
I think the last one veered into the political arena a tad too much. Maybe we can avoid that here?
I think the thread veered into how you could invest in order to keep up with the shrinking dollar and expanding euro, so that you might be able to afford to travel to Europe on your vacation. It didn't seem any different from people who post about those great Capitol One Money market accounts that you can access using your ATM card from Capitol One. or hwo great the Capitol One credit cards are becaseu they don't charge those user fees. The whole issue of the shrinking dollar has political overtones.
Posts: 3743 | Location: St Paul, MN | Registered: 10 February 2006
Talking about credit cards and their rates and ATM fees is good information for all of us.
What I do not like to see is advice like "Put all your money into Euro!" or "Buy Gold!". This is not the place to give this type of financial advice. And I do not like to see all the predictions for what will happen in the future - again this is not the forum for that.
If there is a recent thread on the topic, please reply to the thread. But if it has not been active in the last few weeks, start a new thread.
Originally posted by Kim: You'll probably notice too many of the same or similar replies from the same people in each thread.
Yes, I could post a comment on every thread encouraging people to buy our house as an investment in the euro, but of course I don't!
Living with the fickleness of the currency exchange is quite different than being affected for a 2 week vacation, so maybe these topics veer off the travel-related advice since quite a few of us on the board live full or part-time in Italy.
Whatever the reasons, one thing's for sure....the exchange rate will always be an important consideration for anyone traveling to a foreign country...even if the rate is favorable! Altho it's hard for me to imagine right now, a favorable exchange rate could allow travelers to splurge on more upscale accomodations, or extend their vacation time, or maybe just buy more souveniers!
Traveling home from France yesterday, I found a great example of how meaningless it is to discuss where the dollar and euro may be going. Among the newspapers Air France handed out were the International Herald Tribune and Le Monde. According to the IHT, at least one top currency expert expects the dollar to plunge to over $1.70 against the euro next year.
On the same day, Le Monde was reporting that currency experts believe the dollar will reverse its slide and rise to around $1.30.
Yes, excellent example of the futility of guessing what will happen over a period of time and basing your plans on such guesses. If you plan now for September 2008 and comit to expenses, any bets on what will it cost then vs now are off.
The dollar hit new lows, gold and oil hit new highs, and the Fed is talking about more rate cuts today.
Hmmm, does not seem too hard to see where it is headed ( at least in the near term). Of course, the pound looks headed down as well with talks of rate cuts too.
I think if you watch these markets closely, you can get an inkling, although nobody ever knows for sure how things will transpire. There are always "experts" on the bull and bear side, so not surprising to see both guesses.
I knew in 2005 that housing would tank, the dollar would plunge and there would be a credit crunch. One just had to look at who was buying all the McMansions. That made me scratch my head in disbelief and look deeper & read the books that talked about why it was coming. Perhaps it was just a lucky guess.
If they start cutting rates on the Euro it will go down as well and inflation will increase.
Looks like it will be an interesting year!
I agree Doru & Roz, that nobody knows how things will look next September. If things got too crazy, we would travel elsewhere.
Still if they keep cutting rates, I do not see how that can make the dollar go anywhere but down.
It will be interesting to see how the U.S. recession affects the rest of the world & there are already signs that it is affecting Europe.
futility of guessing what will happen over a period of time and basing your plans on such guesses.
I think that is certainly true for a 2 week vacation.
But, since we were slow traveling for a much longer time, we had to take a calculated risk or not travel Europe. (It was clearly a cheaper choice to head to Argentina, but we wanted to spend extended time in Europe.) For us it was well worth putting money into pounds and Euros and has kept our costs down VERY low.
It was not really too hard to see the tea leaves and even people like Warren Buffet and Bill Gates were headline news in late 2004 and early 2005 putting their money where there mouths were and getting out of the dollar.
Warren Buffett made a pretax gain of $412 million in the fourth quarter of 2004 by buying foreign currencies. And Gates said in Feb. 2005:
quote:
"I'm short the dollar," Gates said, according to Bloomberg News. "The ol' dollar, it's gonna go down."
Sometimes it is not so futile to take a good guess and I think we all do that to a certain extent when making travel plans.
futility of guessing what will happen over a period of time and basing your plans on such guesses.
Sometimes it is not so futile to take a good guess...
I agree. Totally. As long as the guess is good.
But what guarantees are there that conditions will not change over the duration of a long term trip? You just guess the best you can, but are prepared mentally for changes and reversals.
But what guarantees are there that conditions will not change over the duration of a long term trip? You just guess the best you can, but are prepared mentally for changes and reversals.
True. And not only prepare mentally, but have back up plans to move money or yourself to places that will best serve. One needs to do that with a short trip as well.
I think it was easier to see that the dollar was headed down in 2002 to present. Although I do not have much faith in the dollar at the moment, I think things are less clear now, because we are in unchartered territory ( gold & oil have never been this high, housing and banks have never had this bad of a problem, deficit has never been so large etc).
So it is unclear how the dollar decline, recession (& how severe it will be), will affect the rest of the world. There is that old saying "When the U.S. sneezes the rest of the world gets a cold".
Then there is always geopolitical things that is always a wild card.
Originally posted by WT: , housing and banks have never had this bad of a problem, deficit has never been so large etc).
S&L problems were worse for the banks. Then you had the 1930s.
This is barely touching the banks capital ratios. Citibank at the worst [late 80s early 90s] was a potential close the doors situation.
This is barely noise in comparison.
The UK pound seems far more at risk. The Euro has so much money on one side of the bet it's at risk. China has started to speed up it's increase versus the dollar which will hurt the Euro.
S&L problems were worse for the banks. Then you had the 1930s.
This is barely touching the banks capital ratios. Citibank at the worst [late 80s early 90s] was a potential close the doors situation.
This is barely noise in comparison.
Sorry Nick, but with all due respect, I totally disagree.
The S&L mess was tiny compared to this where almost every bank in involved, although I do agree that there are some comparisons to the Great Depression.
There are a few different ways to look at all of this. I think the crisis has been mostly concealed thus far. Only time will tell how it unfolds.
One sure bet is people will keep traveling no matter what!
This message has been edited. Last edited by: Colleen,
